As part of the WB-MIGNET P2P Scenario-Building Exercise held in May 2025, regional experts assessed future migration trends in the Western Balkans, identifying key drivers, forecasting their likely evolution, and proposing policy responses. Their insights provide a nuanced view of both immigration and emigration dynamics over the next 15 years.
IMMIGRATION: Western Balkans as an Emerging Destination
A significant majority of experts (83%) expect immigration to the region to increase. This trend is driven by a combination of factors, including expanding economic opportunity, regional labour mobility, political stability, and demographic demand. The region’s improving infrastructure, cultural familiarity for return migrants, and proximity to key markets make it increasingly attractive.
Key drivers of immigration include:
- Economic opportunities and labour market gaps
- Political stability and institutional development
- Social and cultural networks, especially diaspora ties
- Technological advancement and digital infrastructure
- Environmental and demographic factors
To harness immigration as a strategic opportunity, experts recommend targeted reforms such as labour market integration, education access, inclusive social policies, and infrastructure development.
EMIGRATION: Growing Pressures, Persistent Challenges
An even larger share of experts (89%) believe that emigration from the Western Balkans will intensify, particularly among youth and skilled workers. The dominant push factors include limited job prospects, low wages, political uncertainty, and perceived lack of fairness and trust in institutions.
Primary emigration drivers identified:
- Lack of economic opportunities
- Political instability and governance deficits
- Social dissatisfaction and inequality
- Demographic stagnation and brain drain
- Limited access to innovation and digital transformation
Experts call for systemic solutions, from tax reform and rural revitalization to governance reform and youth empowerment strategies. Only bold, long-term investments in trust, opportunity, and fairness can reverse the emigration tide.
These findings underscore the urgent need for coordinated, forward-looking migration policies that are both rights-based and development-oriented. The WB-MIGNET network continues to serve as a regional platform for research, policy dialogue, and innovation in the field of migration governance.
Based on the WB-MIGNET Scenario-Building Exercise – May 2025, Sarajevo